Home Case Studies

New World Survival

Every disaster
has a lesson.
Here are 22 of them.

Real events. Documented decisions. Specific cascade failures. Every case study ends with five household actions drawn directly from what the event demonstrated — not from general preparedness advice.

Article stages

Rapid Case Note Preliminary Developed After-Action Historical

Each badge reflects how much official data, review, and time has shaped the analysis. Historical = finalized. Rapid = early information, subject to revision.

Current Events

Active case studies being tracked

These articles are being updated as events develop. Stage badges reflect current confidence level — check back as official data is released.

Category 01

The storms, floods, and fires.

Seven hazard types. Each has a cascade lesson that goes beyond 'big storm hits hard.'

Hurricane Historical Case Study

Katrina 2005

1,833 deaths · New Orleans, LA

The levees failed below rated capacity. Engineering — not weather — was the variable no one warned the public about.

Read case study →  5 more hurricanes
Wildfire Historical Case Study

Camp Fire 2018

85 deaths · Paradise, CA

Paradise burned while people sat in traffic. Leaving before the order is the only reliable WUI survival strategy.

Read case study →  9 more wildfires
Tornado Historical Case Study

Joplin 2011

161 deaths · Joplin, MO

24-minute warning. 161 deaths. Warning fatigue killed people — the warning system didn't fail.

Read case study →  4 more tornadoes
Flood Historical Case Study

Mississippi 1927

246+ deaths · 700,000 displaced

The flood that created federal disaster response. FEMA's lineage starts in the Delta, 1927.

Read case study →  14 more floods
Drought Historical Case Study

Dust Bowl 1930s

3.5M displaced · Great Plains

The weather was the trigger. The farming was the cause. Decades of land mismanagement made drought catastrophic.

Read case study →  4 more droughts
Heat Wave Historical Case Study

Europe 2003

70,000+ deaths · Western Europe

France lost 15,000 people in two weeks. Hospitals understaffed during August vacations. The elderly who died alone were the same population everywhere.

Read case study →  4 more heat waves
Ice Storm Historical Case Study

Winter Storm Uri 2021

246 deaths · Texas

The Texas grid was 4 minutes 37 seconds from total collapse. Officials were warned after 2011. Nothing changed.

Read case study →  4 more ice storms

Category 02

When the ground moves.

Four hazard types covering geological forces — where the built environment's relationship with the landscape determines the outcome.

Category 03

When the systems people trust most fail.

Four hazard types covering failures that happen without storms, earthquakes, or any visible external trigger.

Category 04

When the threat is invisible.

Four hazard types where biology and institutional decisions are the variables.

Category 05

When the threat is human.

Two hazard types where human decisions — to harm, to prepare, to organize — are the entire variable.

What these 22 events share

The cascade lesson runs through all of them.

Disasters don't come from nowhere

Every event in this library had a pre-history: the untrimmed trees at FirstEnergy, the missing corrosion inhibitor in Flint, the warning about the Oso slope that never became a restriction, the FBI tip about the Parkland shooter filed and closed 40 days before the shooting. The disaster arrives at the point of maximum vulnerability — and that vulnerability was built over time.

The warning almost always existed

Almost no event in this library happened without prior documentation of the risk. The difference between the warning and the outcome was always a decision — to act on the documentation, or not to. That decision is often the only thing a household can actually influence.

Start with the first 72 hours

Every case study here has a window where a prepared household does better. That window is almost always the first three days.

First 72 hours guide

Know your local risks

22 hazard types are documented here. Your location determines which are most relevant. Find hazard pages for your region.

Your local risks

The community pattern

Neighborhoods with strong social networks before an event consistently outperform isolated households of equivalent means. It shows up in every category.

Community resilience

Ready to act?

Every case study ends with five specific actions.
Start with your most likely hazard.

Preparedness is not complicated. It is specific. Find your highest-probability hazard, read that case study, and implement its five action items.

Find your local hazards