Hurricane preparedness

Water, not wind, accounts for the vast majority of hurricane deaths

The Saffir-Simpson scale rates hurricanes by wind speed: Category 1 through Category 5. This creates a dangerous assumption. People hear "Category 2" and think about roof shingles, not drowning. But the National Hurricane Center is explicit: storm surge is historically the leading cause of fatalities from hurricanes in the United States.

From 1963 to 2012, water-related causes — storm surge, rainfall flooding, and surf — accounted for 88% of all direct U.S. tropical cyclone deaths. Wind and tornadoes together caused only 11%. The mismatch between how hurricanes are categorized (by wind) and how they kill (by water) is the single most dangerous misconception in hurricane preparedness.

Storm surge is not a wave. It is a wall of ocean water pushed ashore by the hurricane's winds. NHC reports that surge can penetrate well inland, traveling up rivers and canals. Hurricane Ike was only a Category 2 at landfall in Galveston in 2008, but the size of its wind field generated a 15-to-20-foot storm surge that destroyed most structures on the Bolivar Peninsula.

The critical point: a lower category does not mean a lower storm surge. Storm surge depends on the size of the storm, the shape of the coastline, and the speed of the storm's approach, not just wind speed. A slow-moving Category 2 hurricane over a shallow continental shelf can produce a higher surge than a fast-moving Category 4.

The one thing to look up before hurricane season starts

Coastal states have mapped hurricane evacuation zones based on storm surge modeling. Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina all run "Know Your Zone" programs with free online lookup tools. You enter your address and the tool tells you which zone you are in.

Zones are typically lettered A through F. Zone A is the most vulnerable to storm surge and is evacuated first. Zone F is the least vulnerable and is evacuated last, if at all. When a governor or county issues an evacuation order, it applies to specific zones. If you do not know your zone, you cannot tell whether the order applies to you.

The time to look this up is before hurricane season starts, not when a storm is 72 hours away. Florida's Division of Emergency Management puts it simply: the greatest threat to life from a hurricane is storm surge flooding. If you are in an ordered evacuation zone, you should follow all evacuation orders.

If you are NOT in an ordered zone and your home was built after 2002 (when updated building codes took effect in most coastal states), sheltering in place may be the safer choice. Unnecessary evacuation adds vehicles to congested roads and fills shelters that are needed for people in surge zones. Knowing your zone prevents both under-response and over-response.

What it actually shows, and what it does not

The NHC forecast cone is one of the most widely seen and most widely misunderstood graphics in emergency communication. The cone represents the probable track of the storm's CENTER over the next five days. It is a measure of forecast uncertainty in the storm's path.

The cone does NOT represent the size of the storm. It does NOT represent the area that will experience hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, or storm surge. A hurricane's wind field, rain bands, and surge effects routinely extend 100 to 200 miles or more from the center. If the cone passes 60 miles south of your city, your city may still experience life-threatening conditions.

NHC has worked to improve public understanding of this graphic, including widening the cone in some forecast periods and adding messaging about hazards outside the cone. But research consistently shows that people outside the cone underestimate their risk. The cone is a track forecast, not a risk forecast. Use it alongside surge maps, rainfall forecasts, and wind probability graphics to understand your actual exposure.

You do not have to live on the beach to die from a hurricane

Recent NHC analysis found that freshwater flooding from rainfall was the leading cause of direct tropical cyclone deaths in the U.S. from 2013 to 2022, responsible for 57% of fatalities. This is a shift from the earlier 50-year record where storm surge dominated — but the underlying lesson is the same: water kills.

Hurricane Harvey (2017) stalled over Texas and dropped over 60 inches of rain in some areas. Sixty-five people died from freshwater flooding, most in the Houston metropolitan area, far from the coast. Hurricane Helene (2024) made landfall in Florida's Big Bend but killed at least 175 people, with the deadliest impacts in the mountains of western North Carolina — over 300 miles from landfall.

The remnants of a hurricane carry enormous moisture. Even after a storm weakens below hurricane strength, it can produce catastrophic rainfall over areas that have never experienced a hurricane. Rivers that normally rise a foot after a storm can rise 20 feet. Creeks become raging torrents. Mountain hollows fill with water that has no place to go.

If you live in an inland area along rivers, creeks, or in low-lying terrain, a hurricane approaching your region is a flood threat to your household, regardless of your distance from the coast.

What to do first, because some options disappear fast

The mistake most people make is treating hurricane preparation as a single event. It is actually a sequence with dependencies. Some actions depend on infrastructure that fails early. Those actions must happen first.

72 hours out: Fill the gas tank (stations run dry 24 to 48 hours before landfall). Withdraw cash (ATMs and bank branches go offline when power fails). Refill prescriptions. Review your evacuation zone, route, and destination. Charge all devices and battery packs.

48 hours out: Buy any remaining supplies (water, food, batteries). Begin securing the exterior: bring in loose objects, trim dead branches, install shutters or plywood if applicable. Top off propane tanks if you have a gas grill (outdoor cooking option if power is out for days).

24 hours out: If you are in an evacuation zone that has been ordered to evacuate, leave now. Charge everything one more time. Fill bathtubs and large containers with water (for flushing toilets if water pressure fails). Move important documents to the highest point in the house. Park vehicles in the garage if possible.

The 72-hour window is the window of choice. At 24 hours, you are reacting. At 12 hours, you are scrambling. At 6 hours, options have closed.

The storm is over. The danger is not.

Ready.gov advises waiting for local officials to announce that it is safe to return, even if roads appear passable. Post-hurricane hazards are often invisible.

Downed power lines may be hidden in standing water or under debris. They can be re-energized without warning as utility crews restore circuits. Stay at least 35 feet from any downed line and assume it is live.

Gas leaks from damaged meters, lines, or appliances can accumulate in enclosed spaces. If you smell gas when you enter your home, leave immediately, do not flip any switches, and call the gas company from outside.

Structural damage may not be visible from the outside. Water-soaked ceilings, compromised foundations, and weakened load-bearing walls can collapse without warning. If the house looks damaged, do not enter until it has been inspected.

Contaminated floodwater contains sewage, chemicals, and bacteria. Any food, medication, or surface that contacted floodwater should be treated as contaminated. Wounds from cleanup work can become infected quickly in post-flood environments.

The pattern in post-storm fatality data is consistent: a significant percentage of hurricane-related deaths occur after the storm has passed, during the return and cleanup phase. Patience on the front end saves lives on the back end.