September 8, 2026

This region holds the only slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the country tonight, plus a separate wind and rain situation in Montana.

The National Weather Service active alert feed, read at 1:01 this morning Eastern time, counts six active alerts in Montana, three in South Dakota, and two in North Dakota. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming show none.

The Storm Prediction Center's overnight outlook, issued at 7:58 last evening Central time and valid until 7:00 this morning Central time, places a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota. A broader marginal risk reaches North Platte in Nebraska, Aberdeen and Watertown in South Dakota, and Mandan and Jamestown in North Dakota. The named hazards are large hail, potentially over two inches in southeast South Dakota, and a tornado or two.

A slight risk is the second of five categories. It means scattered severe storms are expected in the risk area rather than isolated ones. A severe thunderstorm watch was in effect for fourteen counties in south central and southeast South Dakota until 2:00 this morning Central time, and two severe thunderstorm warnings were active in South Dakota when the feed was read. The center expects storms to weaken through the night as the atmosphere stabilizes.

Hail over two inches is baseball sized. It breaks windshields, it dents siding, and it is the one severe hazard where a vehicle under cover is worth the two minutes it takes to move it.

In Montana, three separate items are running. A high wind warning covers southwest Phillips County until 9:00 this morning Mountain time, with west winds of 25 to 40 miles an hour and gusts to 60. A flood watch covers a portion of north central Montana, including the East Glacier Park region and parts of Glacier, Toole, Pondera, Teton, and Liberty counties, for flooding from excessive rainfall. A hydrologic outlook for Flathead, Lake, and Missoula counties describes widespread moderate rainfall over a prolonged period, with storm totals of one to two inches in the valleys and two to three inches in the mountains, including Glacier National Park.

The Weather Prediction Center's overnight excessive rainfall discussion, issued at 8:57 last evening Eastern time, downgraded northwest Montana from a slight risk to a marginal risk for the overnight hours as the rain band weakens and pulls away, while noting that flash flood guidance values there remain low because it has been raining most of the day. Ground that has already taken a day of rain needs less new rain to produce runoff.

North Dakota carries two wind advisories for today, one for the northwest and north central part of the state from 7:00 this morning to 7:00 this evening Central time with gusts to 55 miles an hour, and one for the northeast and southeast from 10:00 to 7:00 with gusts to 50.

Fourteen large fires are burning in the region on the National Interagency Fire Center's current incident list.

In Montana: Sand Creek at 35,509 acres and 36 percent contained, Rattlesnake Complex at 15,611 acres and 74 percent, Bobcat Lakes at 10,895 acres and 61 percent, Camp Creek at 9,725 acres and zero percent, Silvertip at 7,280 acres and 15 percent, Moose at 6,005 acres and 15 percent, Nature Grove at 1,422 acres and zero percent, plus three smaller fires. The Breaks fire is fully contained.

In Colorado: Aspen Acres at 102,004 acres and 82 percent contained, Willow at 7,534 acres and 80 percent, and Elk at 7,257 acres and 73 percent. In Utah: Tom Creek at 4,991 acres and 85 percent and Slough Canyon at 4,774 acres and 63 percent. In South Dakota: Needles at 6,018 acres and 35 percent.

The fires with the least perimeter held are Camp Creek and Nature Grove in Montana at zero percent and Needles in South Dakota at 35 percent. Containment is a measure of how much of the edge is secured, not how much of the fire is out. A fire at zero percent is one where crews have not yet closed any of the line.

The rain across northwest Montana works in favor of the fires there and against the roads. Both things are true at once.

The national wildfire preparedness level is 4 on a five step scale, set September 4 at 7:30 in the morning Mountain time, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Its national fire news page, current September 7, counts 65 large fires with 15,855 firefighters and support staff assigned, and 53,233 fires for 8,303,398 acres so far this year.

Federal disaster declarations are open in four of the six states. Colorado carries number 4944, issued September 1, for wildfires, flooding, and mudslides. South Dakota carries numbers 4938 and 4941 and North Dakota number 4934, all issued September 1 for severe storm events. Households in the named counties can look up assistance categories and deadlines under those numbers.

No air quality alerts are active in the six states, which is worth noting given the fire count. Smoke concentration depends on wind direction as much as on fire size, and today's westerly flow is moving smoke rather than pooling it.

Specific air quality index readings near the Montana and Colorado fires were not obtained this run. The Fire and Smoke Map at fire.airnow.gov gives a current local number for any address.

No boil water advisories were identified across the region.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Health Alert Network archive could not be read this run, so this brief makes no claim about national health advisories in either direction.

The pattern is about to turn, and this region is where the turn shows up first.

The Weather Prediction Center's extended discussion, issued at 1:41 yesterday afternoon Eastern time and valid Thursday through the following Monday, has upper level troughing extending into the Northwest late this week and reinforcing next weekend. A cold front pushes south across the Northwest and northern Plains late this week, bringing unsettled weather. The center states plainly that wintry weather will be possible in the northern Rockies next weekend as cooler air moves in behind the front.

That is the first mention of winter weather in this brief this season, and it is the right time to hear it. In the northern Rockies the first snow at elevation typically arrives in September, and the households caught out are the ones whose vehicles are still set up for August.

The window for the ordinary autumn items is now: tire condition checked before the first snow rather than after, a blanket and a shovel back in the vehicle, and the heating system serviced while a service call still gets answered the same week.

That last one brings its own hazard. Every autumn the first cold night is followed by carbon monoxide calls, because the furnace comes on for the first time in months and the alarm has a dead battery. Carbon monoxide has no smell and no color. The alarm is the only thing that detects it.

Operate portable generators outdoors only, at least 20 feet from homes and buildings, with exhaust directed away from windows, doors, and vents. Install working carbon monoxide alarms on every level of the home and outside sleeping areas, and test them monthly. If a carbon monoxide alarm sounds, get outside immediately, then call 911. That guidance is from the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

In the near term, the Storm Prediction Center expects tonight's storms in the Dakotas to weaken with the loss of daytime heating, and the Montana rain to pull away this morning. Neither is a multi day event.

The medium range also carries the other side of the pattern: low pressure strengthening over the northern and central Plains early next week, with heavy rainfall potential ahead of it into the eastern Plains. Model agreement is poor that far out, which the center says directly. Treat it as a thing to check again Thursday rather than a thing to plan around now.