September 4, 2026

Hawaii carries the item that matters most in this region today, and the honest version of it has two halves that should not be collapsed into one.

The first half is happening now. Hurricane Lowell was centered near 13.5 north, 158.9 west at 5 p.m. Hawaii time on September 3, about 495 miles south-southwest of Hilo and 590 miles south of Lihue, moving west at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 130 miles per hour. That makes it a category 4 hurricane. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center states that there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. It also states that swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days. Those two facts sit together: the storm is far away, and the water at the shoreline is the hazard it is already sending.

For households in Hawaii the action today is about the ocean and nothing else. Surf generated by a distant major hurricane arrives as long period swell, which breaks harder and pulls stronger than the size of the wave suggests. The guidance from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is to consult your local weather office for surf products, and the practical version is to stay out of the water on exposed shores and to keep children well back from the waterline even on beaches that normally look calm.

The second half is the forecast, and it is genuinely uncertain rather than reassuring or alarming. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center expects Lowell to continue west with a gradual decrease in forward speed for the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north this weekend, and expects it to remain a major hurricane through the weekend. The advisory's own guidance is that interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Lowell. That is the standard phrasing for a storm whose track has not resolved, and it is neither a watch nor a warning.

What that means for a household this morning is straightforward. There is nothing to evacuate for and no warning in effect. There is a reason to know where your information will come from over the weekend, and to do the small things that are easier now than Sunday: know your evacuation zone, have a few days of water and food in the house, and make sure phones and any power banks are charged before the weekend rather than after the forecast changes.

Arizona has the region's other active item. The Weather Prediction Center holds a slight risk of excessive rainfall over southeastern Arizona through Friday morning, and extends it across portions of Arizona for Friday into Saturday, on tropical moisture drawn north from Hurricane Marie. Do not drive into water across a road, which is the National Weather Service's Turn Around, Don't Drown guidance. In Arizona that guidance applies to washes and dips in the road as much as to visible flooding, and the water often arrives from a storm that is not overhead.

California holds eleven active National Weather Service alerts this morning, Hawaii three, and Arizona, Nevada, and Guam two each.

The Plaskett fire in California remains among the large uncontained fires nationally. Nationally the wildfire preparedness level stands at 5, its highest step, with 84 large uncontained fires and 20,245 personnel assigned. The year to date total is 52,626 fires and 8,265,751 acres, which is 126 percent of the ten year average for fires and 163 percent for acres. Those figures come from the National Interagency Fire Center report dated September 2, so they are one to two days behind this morning.

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred about 85 kilometers west of Petrolia, California on September 1 and drew more than 250 felt reports. No damage has been reported and no tsunami message was issued for it.

No grid emergencies or water system disruptions are reported across the region this morning. In Hawaii, distant swell affects harbors and small craft before it affects anything on land.

Air quality is the recurring health item across California and Nevada while large fires burn, and it changes hour to hour. AirNow gives a current reading for your address.

No other public health advisories specific to the region were confirmed this run. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Health Alert Network archive could not be read this run, so this brief makes no claim about national health advisories in either direction.

Lowell is the watch item, and the useful framing is timing rather than threat. The forecast turn toward the northwest and north comes this weekend, and the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane through it. Whether that turn happens east of the islands, over them, or west of them is the question the forecast has not yet answered, which is exactly why the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is asking people to monitor rather than to act.

The practical shape of the next two days is therefore: nothing to act on today, one thing to avoid, and a short list to finish. The thing to avoid is the water on exposed shores, and that hazard is real now regardless of where the storm eventually goes. The short list is the ordinary one. Water for several days, food that needs no cooking, medications topped up, a full tank, cash in small bills, and a charged phone with a battery pack. On an island, the honest constraint is that resupply comes by sea and air, so the household that is set before a warning is set.

Two more storms are in the eastern Pacific and neither threatens land. Hurricane Karina is at 105 miles per hour near 20.1 north, 138.4 west and is expected to weaken. Hurricane Marie is a category 2 at 100 miles per hour near 19.6 north, 116.3 west, moving away from the Baja California peninsula. Marie's moisture is what reaches Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico early next week; its winds do not reach anyone.

The National Hurricane Center is also watching an area of low pressure offshore southwestern Mexico with a 40 percent chance of development over seven days and near zero over two days. It is expected to stay well offshore.

For California, the seasonal item is that the most dangerous fire weeks of the year are usually still ahead in September and October, when offshore wind events arrive over ground that has dried all summer. The work that pays off then is the work done now: clearing what is against the house, knowing two ways out of your neighborhood, and having the documents that are hard to replace in one place you can pick up on the way to the car.