Active Weather
A broad omega-block pattern across the country is parking a mean upper-level trough over the central and southern Plains. Deep moisture and several smaller mid-level disturbances are cycling under this trough, producing rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) flags a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the central and southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Florida today.
For Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, the primary concern is heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding from repeated thunderstorm activity rather than severe wind or tornadoes. Frontal boundaries moving south from the Plains toward the Gulf Coast will focus storm activity through the weekend. In drought-affected areas, this rainfall may provide welcome relief, but concentrated bursts can still overwhelm drainage systems.
Oklahoma is drier today. New Mexico remains dry with above-average temperatures.
Infrastructure
The Small Business Administration (SBA) declared a disaster for parts of Texas on May 7 following severe storms and tornadoes. Affected businesses and residents may be eligible for low-interest disaster loans. If your property was damaged in the early May storms, visit sba.gov/disaster or call 1-800-659-2955 to learn about eligibility.
Minor river flooding continues in parts of Arkansas, eastern Texas, and Louisiana this week. The NWS Southern Region weather threat briefing notes these are expected to continue through next week as additional rainfall moves through. No rivers are at major flood stage.
Nationally, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports the country is at National Preparedness Level 2 (on a scale of 1 to 5), with 15 to 19 uncontained large fires burning across the country. Approximately 2.4 million acres have burned year-to-date, which is above the 10-year average. The South Central region's Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) reports approximately 36,800 acres burning across 4 active incidents, primarily in the arid Southwest. New Mexico should monitor fire conditions as dry thunderstorm potential exists in the western and central parts of the state.
Public Health
No active public health advisories specific to the South Central region. Air quality is within normal ranges, though wildfire smoke from the Southwest may affect parts of western New Mexico.
At the national level, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has two active Health Advisory notices. The first, issued May 19, concerns an Ebola disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda caused by the Bundibugyo virus. The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on May 17. The risk of spread to U.S. households is considered low. The second, updated May 18, monitors an Andes virus (hantavirus) cluster linked to a cruise ship in the Atlantic. No confirmed U.S. cases have been reported, and the domestic risk remains extremely low. Neither advisory requires household action beyond general awareness.
As temperatures push into the mid-90s across southern Texas, heat safety becomes a daily consideration. Stay hydrated, limit strenuous outdoor work to morning hours, and never leave children or pets in parked vehicles.
Watch Item
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2026 season outlook on May 21, forecasting a below-normal season: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to suppress Atlantic tropical development. While encouraging, even quiet seasons can produce landfalling storms — preparation matters regardless of the forecast. The Gulf Coast — Texas, Louisiana, and the southern coasts — faces direct hurricane exposure. Use this week before June 1 to check supplies, review insurance policies (especially flood insurance, which requires a 30-day waiting period), and confirm your evacuation route.
The stalled trough pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, meaning multiple rounds of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will continue across the region. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall by Monday.
Texas has had an exceptionally active severe weather year. Governor Abbott activated state emergency response resources ahead of severe storms on May 10. The pattern that produced the early May tornadoes has continued to cycle through the region.
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