May 28, 2026

A warm, humid, and unstable air mass continues to fuel showers and thunderstorms across much of the southern United States. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) identifies a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast Florida for today. Thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall are the primary concern — not severe wind or tornadoes, but the kind of repeated heavy downpours that can cause flash flooding in low-lying areas and urban drainage systems.

The frontal boundaries pushing through the region from the Southern Plains toward the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines will continue to focus shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. Scattered storms may bring welcome rainfall to drought-affected areas in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Alabama, but concentrated bursts could overwhelm drainage in already-saturated spots along the Gulf Coast.

Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina are on the quieter side of this pattern today, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Florida has three active Fire Management Assistance declarations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): the Cow Creek Fire (declared April 23, still active), the Railroad Complex Fire (declared April 22, still active), and supporting operations across the state. FEMA Fire Management Assistance means the federal government is helping cover firefighting costs — it does not trigger individual household assistance.

Georgia also has an active Fire Management Assistance declaration for the Highway 82 Wildfire (declared April 22, still active). The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports several large fires burning in Florida, including fires near Tallahassee, Deland, Hawthorne, and Avon Park. Fire behavior on most of these is minimal to moderate, with structures threatened near some incidents.

No active power outages or transportation disruptions are reported. Minor river flooding may occur in localized areas of Alabama and Mississippi where repeated thunderstorm activity has saturated soils.

No specific public health advisories for the Southeast today. Air quality may be locally reduced near active wildfire areas in Florida and Georgia — households within 20 miles of an active fire should monitor conditions and limit outdoor exertion if smoke is visible or you can smell it.

At the national level, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has two active Health Advisory notices. The first, issued May 19, concerns an Ebola disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda caused by the Bundibugyo virus. The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on May 17. The risk of spread to U.S. households is considered low. The second, updated May 18, monitors an Andes virus (hantavirus) cluster linked to a cruise ship in the Atlantic. No confirmed U.S. cases have been reported, and the domestic risk remains extremely low. Neither advisory requires household action beyond general awareness.

As temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 80s across the southern states, stay hydrated and check on elderly neighbors who may not have air conditioning.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2026 season outlook on May 21, forecasting a below-normal season: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. A developing El Niño pattern is expected to suppress Atlantic tropical development. While encouraging, even quiet seasons can produce landfalling storms — preparation matters regardless of the forecast. The Southeast is the most hurricane-exposed region in the country. Florida, the Gulf Coast of Alabama and Mississippi, and the Carolinas face the full range of tropical hazards: storm surge, wind, inland flooding, and tornadoes. Use this pre-season week to review your plan.

The active wildfire season in Florida and Georgia is expected to continue through late spring. Persistent drought conditions in parts of the Southeast have elevated fire risk, and the NIFC seasonal outlook from January projected above-normal wildfire risk for much of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas this year.

The Small Business Administration (SBA) declared a disaster for parts of Texas on May 7 following severe storms and tornadoes — while not in the Southeast region, the pattern that produced those storms has continued to push disturbances into the region.