Active Weather
North Carolina carries today's active item. The Storm Prediction Center's slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Friday extends into the southern Mid-Atlantic, and Raleigh is one of the named population centers inside it. A slight risk is the second of five steps and means scattered severe storms are expected. The hazard forecasters name is damaging wind gusts rather than tornadoes or large hail.
North Carolina also holds twelve active National Weather Service alerts this morning, more than any other state in the country. Tennessee has eight and Kentucky five. Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina have two each, Georgia one, and Florida none.
The rest of the region sits outside the named severe weather risk areas. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina are clear of both the severe thunderstorm outlook and the excessive rainfall outlook today.
The Weather Prediction Center holds a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the Gulf Coast states for Friday into Saturday. Marginal is the lowest of four steps and describes the sort of localized street flooding that clears within a few hours.
For households in central and eastern North Carolina the day's action is small and specific: damaging wind is the named hazard, so bring in what you would rather not chase, and expect scattered outages rather than a widespread one. Do not drive into water across a road, which is the National Weather Service's Turn Around, Don't Drown guidance.
If wind takes your power out and you run a generator, operate it outdoors only, at least 20 feet from the house, with the exhaust pointed away from windows, doors, and vents. Working carbon monoxide alarms belong on every level of the home and outside sleeping areas, and they should be tested monthly. If a carbon monoxide alarm sounds, get outside first, then call 911. That guidance is the Consumer Product Safety Commission's.
Infrastructure
No large uncontained wildfires are burning in the region. Nationally the wildfire preparedness level stands at 5, its highest step, with 84 large uncontained fires and 20,245 personnel assigned. The year to date total is 52,626 fires and 8,265,751 acres, which is 126 percent of the ten year average for fires and 163 percent for acres. Those figures come from the National Interagency Fire Center report dated September 2, so they are one to two days behind this morning.
No grid emergencies or water system disruptions are reported across the eight states this morning.
Public Health
No public health advisories specific to the Southeast were confirmed this run. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Health Alert Network archive could not be read this run, so this brief makes no claim about national health advisories in either direction.
Watch Item
The tropical picture is the story worth understanding here, and it is a quiet one that will not stay quiet by itself. The National Hurricane Center's Atlantic outlook, issued at 8 p.m. Eastern on September 3, reports no tropical cyclones in the basin and states that formation is not expected during the next seven days.
September is normally the busiest month of the Atlantic season and the Southeast carries more of that exposure than any other region on this list. An empty basin in the first week of September is unusual and worth using rather than worth relaxing about. The seven day outlook says nothing about the rest of the month.
The work that a week like this is for is the work that becomes difficult once a storm has a name. New flood insurance policies generally carry a waiting period before they take effect, and standard homeowner policies do not cover flood, so a policy priced this week is one that is actually in force later in the season. Photographing the interior of your home, including inside closets and cabinets, is a twenty minute job that is far easier now. If you are on the coast, your evacuation zone is a county level question with a definite answer, and looking it up now removes one decision from a day when you will not want to be making any.
The plainest advantage of a quiet week is supply. Shelves are stocked, generators are in stock, and nothing is rationed. Households that stay calm during a warning are almost always the ones that did this shopping when nothing was happening.
The United States Drought Monitor released a new map on September 3 using data valid September 1. The national drought percentage could not be read from the site this run, so this brief does not quote one.
Explore Today
The stretch after the first 72 hours, which is where most hurricane recoveries actually live.
Evacuation zones and flood exposure for your address, worth knowing before a cone appears.
A pantry that carries a household through a week without a working store.