What is the earthquake risk in Arkansas from the New Madrid Seismic Zone?

The USGS estimates a 25 to 40 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone within any 50-year period, and a 7 to 10 percent probability of a magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 event. Northeastern Arkansas sits directly over the zone, which averages about 200 small earthquakes per year. The Arkansas Division of Emergency Management identifies 19 eastern and central counties as having the most significant earthquake risk. Earthquake insurance is a separate policy from standard homeowner coverage.

Arkansas Local Risk Guide: Household Hazards, Disruptions and Preparedness

Q: How do I find my NWS forecast office and county emergency management in Arkansas?

Arkansas is served by one in-state NWS office (Little Rock, covering 47 of 75 counties) plus four out-of-state offices covering border counties: Memphis for the eastern Delta, Tulsa for the northwest, Shreveport for the southwest, and Jackson, MS for Ashley and Chicot counties. Enter your address at weather.gov to find your local office. For county emergency management, contact the Arkansas Division of Emergency Management (ADEM) at 501-683-6700 or download their county coordinator directory.

Q: What causes the longest power outages in Arkansas?

Ice storms cause the longest outages. The January 2009 ice storm left over 300,000 residences without power in northern Arkansas, downed more than 30,000 utility poles, and left some households without electricity for weeks. North Arkansas Electric Cooperative reported 97 percent of its customers lost power. The northern half of the state, especially the Ozarks, is most vulnerable to ice accumulation. Households that rely on electric heat or a well pump need a backup plan that works without grid power.

Why this page exists

Risk in Arkansas varies by region, by season, and by household.

Arkansas faces a wider range of natural hazards than most states its size: tornadoes and severe thunderstorms from the southwest, river and flash flooding along multiple major basins, ice storms that collapse the northern power grid for weeks, earthquake exposure from the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the northeast, and prolonged extreme heat across the Delta and central lowlands. Which of these matters most depends on where in Arkansas you live, what your household looks like, and which season it is.

This page helps you identify which hazards and disruptions are locally relevant, understand how risk changes across the state, see which times of year deserve closer attention, and build a household plan around what is actually likely where you live. It focuses on warning systems, household continuity, cascading failures, and recovery. For land, water rights, growing conditions, and property due diligence, see the main Arkansas guide.

Start here

Identify your local jurisdiction and forecast office.

Arkansas has 75 counties. Emergency management, alert enrollment, and many hazard-specific services are organized at the county level. Knowing your county and the National Weather Service office that covers it is the starting point for every other decision on this page.

Find your county emergency management

Contact ADEM or download their county coordinator directory for your local emergency management office and alert enrollment system.

ADEM county coordinator directory

Find your NWS forecast office

Enter your address at weather.gov to find which NWS office issues warnings for your area. Arkansas is covered by one in-state office plus four out-of-state offices for border counties.

National Weather Service

NWS offices serving Arkansas

Little Rock (LZK): 47 counties across central, northern, and southern Arkansas

Memphis, TN (MEG): 10 eastern Arkansas counties along the Delta

Tulsa, OK (TSA): 7 northwestern Arkansas counties

Shreveport, LA (SHV): 9 southwestern Arkansas counties

Jackson, MS (JAN): Ashley and Chicot counties in the far southeast

Statewide baseline

Preparations that address several Arkansas hazards at once.

Before addressing region-specific hazards, these baseline preparations cover the disruptions that recur statewide. Each one applies to tornadoes, ice storms, flooding, severe thunderstorms, or extreme heat, and most apply to several.

Redundant warning methods

A NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup, your county's alert enrollment, and Wireless Emergency Alerts enabled on your phone. No single channel is reliable alone.

Tornado shelter plan

A designated interior room, basement, or safe room for every regular location: home, work, school. Practice the route so it works at 2 a.m. Arkansas averages roughly 37 tornadoes per year.

Stored drinking water

At least three days per person, stored where flooding will not reach it. If you rely on a private well, your water stops when the power stops. Plan accordingly.

Backup lighting and charging

Flashlights, a battery lantern, and a way to charge a phone for at least 72 hours. Ice storms and severe thunderstorms both take down power for days across large areas.

Backup heat source

If you heat with electricity only, identify and test an alternative before winter. A ventilated propane heater, wood stove, or kerosene heater with fuel on hand. Never use a generator, gas range, or charcoal grill for indoor heating.

Medication continuity

A current medication list, at least a week's supply on hand, and a plan for refrigerated medications during an outage. Know your pharmacy's emergency dispensing policy.

Route planning

Two ways out of your neighborhood, a paper map of your county, and awareness of which roads cross floodplains or low-water crossings. Know alternate routes to work, school, and the hospital.

Records and documentation

Copies of insurance policies, identification, medical records, and household inventory in a waterproof container and a secure digital backup. You will need these for any FEMA or insurance claim.

Communication and reunification

An out-of-state contact, a household meeting point, and a plan for reaching family members during a tornado warning or evacuation. Practice the plan with everyone.

Pet and livestock arrangements

Know where pets go during a tornado shelter event. Livestock need water that does not depend on power. Identify boarding or evacuation options before the event.

Hazard profile

What each Arkansas hazard actually does to a household.

This table connects each hazard to the household decisions it forces. For detailed before/during/after procedures, follow the guide link in the last column.

Arkansas hazards with location, timing, warning character, household disruption, and planning decisions
Hazard	Where it matters	Higher-attention period	Warning character	Likely household disruption	First planning decision	Full guide
Tornadoes	Statewide; highest concentration in the River Valley and central Arkansas	March through June; secondary peak November	Minutes of lead time; nighttime tornadoes are disproportionately deadly	Structural damage, power loss, road closure, displacement	Where does every household member shelter, including at 2 a.m.?	Tornado guide →
Flooding	River flooding in major basins; flash flooding in Ozarks and Ouachitas	March through June (spring rains); any season after heavy rainfall	River: hours to days. Flash: minutes. Low-water crossings rise with no notice	Road impassable, basement or ground-floor damage, well contamination, isolation	Does my home or any regular route cross a mapped flood hazard area?	Flood guide →
Ice storms	Northern half; most severe in the Ozarks and north-central counties	December through February	12 to 24 hours of advance forecasting; duration and accumulation uncertain	Extended power outage (days to weeks), loss of heat, frozen pipes, well pump failure, road closure	Can my household heat, cook, and access water for two weeks without power?	Ice storm guide →
Severe thunderstorms	Statewide; damaging hail heaviest in the River Valley and northwest	March through June	Watch: hours. Warning: 15 to 30 minutes. Straight-line winds can exceed 80 mph	Roof and vehicle damage, power loss, downed trees, outdoor hazards	Can I receive a severe thunderstorm warning when I am asleep or outdoors?	Thunderstorm guide →
Extreme heat	Statewide; most severe in the Delta and central lowlands	June through September	Days of advance forecasting; heat advisories and warnings issued for heat-index thresholds	Heat illness, high cooling costs, medication storage risk, livestock stress, food spoilage	Does every household member have access to a cooled space and adequate hydration?	Heat guide →
Earthquakes	Northeastern Arkansas (NMSZ); effects felt statewide for a large event	No seasonal pattern	No advance warning. Small earthquakes are frequent; a major event is low-probability, high-consequence	Structural damage, utility failure, road and bridge disruption, liquefaction in alluvial soils	Is my home in the NMSZ? Have I priced earthquake insurance?	Earthquake guide →
Wildfire	Statewide during drought; elevated in forested Ozark and Ouachita highlands	March (windy, dry); August through November (drought, leaf litter, debris burning)	Fire weather watches; red flag warnings for wind and low humidity	Smoke, road closure, evacuation, structure loss at the wildland-urban interface	Is my property in a fire-prone area, and is vegetation managed near structures?	Wildfire guide →
Drought	Statewide; southeastern Delta most vulnerable to water stress	July through October; flash drought can develop rapidly	U.S. Drought Monitor updated weekly; impact develops over weeks	Well yield decline, crop loss, wildfire risk increase, water-use restrictions	Does my water source remain reliable during prolonged dry conditions?	Drought guide →

Operational risk regions

How risk changes across the state.

These regions are defined by shared hazard patterns and household planning needs. They are distinct from the land-search regions in the main Arkansas state guide.

Ozark Highlands

Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Izard, Madison, Marion, Newton, Searcy, Sharp, Stone, Washington counties and vicinity. Steep terrain, narrow valleys, karst geology, forested ridges.

Primary hazards: Ice storms (heaviest accumulation in the state), flash flooding in narrow hollows, tornadoes (especially in valley corridors), wildfire during drought

Infrastructure considerations: Long power restoration times after ice events due to terrain and line access. Private wells common; well pump fails with power. Many homes on steep grades with limited access routes. Cell coverage gaps in valleys.

Verify locally:

Can your driveway be reached by utility trucks in an ice storm?
Does your well have a manual or generator-powered backup?
Is your only access road a low-water crossing that floods?

Ouachita Mountains and River Valley

Crawford, Franklin, Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Perry, Pike, Polk, Scott, Sebastian, Yell counties and vicinity. The Arkansas River Valley funnels severe weather from the southwest. Ouachita ridges and valleys with mixed forest cover.

Primary hazards: Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (the River Valley is a recognized severe weather corridor), flash flooding, ice storms, wildfire in forested areas

Infrastructure considerations: Mountain terrain complicates evacuation. Some areas served by Tulsa NWS rather than Little Rock. Flash flooding in Ouachita hollows can be sudden and severe, as the 2010 Albert Pike disaster demonstrated.

Verify locally:

Which NWS office issues your warnings: Little Rock, Tulsa, or Shreveport?
Do you camp or recreate near creeks that can flash-flood with upstream rain?
Is your access road a single route through a mountain pass?

Central Arkansas and Metro Little Rock

Pulaski, Faulkner, Lonoke, Saline, Garland, White, Cleburne, Conway, Independence counties and vicinity. Urban, suburban, and small-city mix around the state capital. The most populated corridor.

Primary hazards: Tornadoes (Pulaski County has recorded the highest tornado count of any Arkansas county), severe thunderstorms, flooding along the Arkansas River and smaller tributaries, extreme heat (urban heat island), ice storms

Infrastructure considerations: Higher population density means shelter demand exceeds capacity faster. Traffic congestion during evacuation. Apartment and renter populations have different planning needs. Urban flooding from impervious surfaces.

Verify locally:

Does your apartment building have a designated tornado shelter area?
Do you have an evacuation route that avoids the major highway bottlenecks?
Does your commute cross a known flood-prone road or low-water bridge?

Mississippi Delta and Eastern Lowlands

Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Jackson, Lee, Mississippi, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett, Prairie, St. Francis, Woodruff counties and vicinity. Flat alluvial plain, agricultural economy, the state's most earthquake-exposed region.

Primary hazards: New Madrid Seismic Zone earthquakes (the NMSZ runs through this region), river flooding along the Mississippi, White, Cache, and St. Francis rivers, extreme heat and humidity, tornadoes

Infrastructure considerations: Flat terrain offers no natural protection from tornadoes. Alluvial soils are susceptible to liquefaction during a major earthquake. Many households served by Memphis NWS rather than Little Rock. Levee-dependent areas face catastrophic consequences if a levee is overtopped or breached.

Verify locally:

Is your property in a levee-protected area, and do you understand residual risk?
Have you priced earthquake insurance as a separate policy?
Does your NWS forecast come from Memphis rather than Little Rock?

Southwest Arkansas and Gulf Coastal Plain

Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Drew, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada, Ouachita, Sevier, Union counties and vicinity. Pine forests, timber industry, lower elevation, warmer and more humid.

Primary hazards: Tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, extreme heat (longest and most intense heat season in the state), flooding along the Ouachita, Little Missouri, and Red rivers, wildfire during drought

Infrastructure considerations: Served by Shreveport NWS for most counties. More rural, with longer distances to hospitals and emergency services. Pine forest wildfire risk elevated during drought. Some areas closer to Gulf moisture and tropical remnant rainfall.

Verify locally:

Does your county alert system reach you, or do you rely on Shreveport NWS?
How far is the nearest hospital or emergency room?
Is vegetation managed around structures for wildfire risk reduction?

Southeast Arkansas

Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln counties and vicinity. Low-lying agricultural land between the Arkansas and Mississippi rivers. The southern extension of the Delta.

Primary hazards: River flooding (confluence of major river systems), extreme heat, tornadoes, drought (particularly vulnerable to water stress from groundwater depletion in the Grand Prairie and Cache critical areas)

Infrastructure considerations: Ashley and Chicot counties are served by the Jackson, MS NWS office. Significant agricultural water demand can stress supplies during drought. Levee and drainage infrastructure is critical to habitability. Rural distances to services.

Verify locally:

Does your NWS forecast come from Jackson, MS rather than Little Rock or Memphis?
Is your property in a designated critical groundwater area?
Are you in a levee-dependent area, and do you carry flood insurance?

Seasonal readiness

When each hazard deserves your closer attention.

No hazard is impossible outside its typical season. This calendar shows when to review and verify your preparations, not when to start worrying.

Arkansas seasonal readiness calendar by month
Season	Higher-attention hazards	Household task
January – February	Ice storms, winter storms, river flooding from snowmelt	Test backup heat. Verify pipe insulation. Charge battery lanterns. Confirm well backup works. Check medication supply.
March – April	Tornadoes (primary peak), severe thunderstorms, river flooding, wildfire (March dry/wind)	Review tornado shelter plan. Practice nighttime shelter drill. Check NOAA Weather Radio battery. Confirm insurance coverage. Clear brush from structures.
May – June	Tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, river flooding, early heat	Verify flood zone status and routes. Check sump pump. Review severe weather warnings vs. watches. Inspect cooling systems.
July – August	Extreme heat, drought, wildfire, flash flooding from isolated storms	Confirm cooling access for every household member. Check on neighbors. Monitor well yield. Store extra water. Check burn ban status.
September – October	Lingering heat, drought, wildfire (leaf litter and debris burning), tropical remnants	Prepare for winter before it arrives. Service heating equipment. Restock stored water. Check roof and gutters. Clear dead vegetation.
November – December	Late-season tornadoes (secondary peak), winter storms, ice storms, wildfire	Test backup heat source with fuel on hand. Insulate pipes. Review tornado shelter plan (November tornadoes catch people off-guard). Charge emergency lighting.

Cascading disruptions

When one failure triggers the next.

Arkansas hazards rarely produce a single consequence. These cascading chains show how one event compounds into a multi-day household crisis, and where a single preparation breaks the chain.

Ice storm chain (northern Arkansas)

Ice accumulates on trees and power lines → poles snap, extended power outage (days to weeks) → electric heat fails → pipes freeze and burst → well pump fails, no running water → roads impassable from downed trees → isolation

Break the chain: A tested backup heat source with fuel, stored drinking water, and pipe insulation prevent the worst outcomes even if power stays out for weeks.

Flash flood chain (Ozarks and Ouachitas)

Heavy upstream rain in steep terrain → creeks and hollows rise in minutes → low-water crossings become impassable → vehicles trapped or swept away → households isolated from emergency services → well contaminated by floodwater

Break the chain: Know which roads have low-water crossings. Have an alternate route. Never drive through moving water. Test your well after any flood event.

Tornado and power outage chain (statewide)

Tornado damages structures and power infrastructure → widespread outage → food spoils in refrigerators and freezers → medication requiring refrigeration lost → fuel stations inoperable without power → cell towers on backup battery run down

Break the chain: A charged portable power bank keeps your phone alive. A cooler with ice preserves medication. A quarter-tank-or-above fuel habit keeps your vehicle usable.

Extreme heat and drought chain (Delta and central lowlands)

Sustained triple-digit heat index → cooling demand peaks, grid strain → rolling outages or brownouts → well yield declines in drought → wildfire risk rises as vegetation dries → outdoor work becomes dangerous

Break the chain: Confirm access to a cooled space for every household member. Store extra water before the heat season. Monitor burn bans and drought conditions weekly.

New Madrid earthquake chain (eastern Arkansas)

Major earthquake → liquefaction in alluvial soils, structural damage → bridges and roads fail → levees compromised → flooding in levee-protected areas → gas line ruptures, fires → multi-state emergency overwhelms local response

Break the chain: Secure heavy furniture and water heaters. Know how to shut off gas. Store water and supplies for extended self-sufficiency. A major NMSZ event would affect multiple states simultaneously, meaning outside help arrives slowly.

Household situations

What changes for your specific household.

The baseline preparations apply to everyone. These overlays address the added considerations for households with specific circumstances. Each links to a full situation guide.

Renters and apartment residents

Tornado shelter in shared buildings, limited storage, landlord responsibility for structure, no control over backup power, renter's insurance.

Rural and well-dependent households

Private well pump depends on power. Longer distances to emergency services. Single access roads. Livestock water needs. Propane or wood heat reliance.

Older adults and people with disabilities

Medication continuity, mobility during evacuation, heat vulnerability, check-in systems, backup power for medical equipment.

Medically dependent households

Electrically powered medical devices, refrigerated medications, oxygen concentrators, dialysis access, and utility priority registration.

Households with infants and children

Formula and diaper supply, school reunification plans, age-appropriate shelter drills, car seat in evacuation.

Pets, service animals, and livestock

Shelter plans that include animals, livestock water during outages, evacuation with large animals, veterinary records.

People living alone

Check-in network, self-rescue limitations, ensuring someone knows if you do not answer, medication and fall risk during outages.

Households separated by work or school

Reunification plan for tornado warnings during school hours, communication plan when cell service fails, pre-authorized pickup contacts.

Warning systems

How warnings reach your household.

No single warning channel is reliable in every situation. A tornado warning while you sleep requires a different alert method than a flood watch while you are driving. Layer these systems so at least one reaches you.

Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)

Automatic, location-based alerts on cell phones for tornado warnings, flash flood emergencies, and extreme weather. No enrollment required, but confirm the feature is enabled in your phone settings.

NOAA Weather Radio

Arkansas has 25 NOAA Weather Radio transmitters statewide. A battery-powered receiver with the alarm tone feature will wake you during a nighttime tornado warning. Program it for your county. This is the most reliable middle-of-the-night warning system.

County alert enrollment

Many Arkansas counties offer opt-in alert systems for local emergencies, road closures, and evacuations. Contact your county emergency management coordinator to enroll. Coverage and capability vary by county.

NWS alert levels

Understand the distinction: an outlook means conditions are possible in the coming days. A watch means conditions are favorable for the hazard. A warning means the hazard is occurring or imminent. An emergency (flash flood, tornado) means a severe, life-threatening event is confirmed. Each level calls for a different household response.

A note on outdoor warning sirens

Outdoor warning sirens are designed to alert people who are outside. They may not be audible inside a well-insulated home, especially at night with closed windows and climate control running. Do not rely on sirens as your nighttime warning system. A NOAA Weather Radio beside your bed is more reliable for that purpose.

Prepare, endure, recover

The household lifecycle of a disruption.

Prepare

Actions you can complete before the higher-attention season or within the next month:

Identify your NWS office and county emergency management. Enroll in local alerts.
Choose and practice a tornado shelter location for home, work, and school.
Check your flood zone status and map your daily routes for flood-prone crossings.
Store at least three days of drinking water per household member.
Test your backup heat source and confirm fuel supply before November.
Assemble a portable document kit: insurance, ID, medical records, household inventory photos.
If you are in the NMSZ area, secure heavy furniture, water heater, and shelving. Price earthquake insurance.
Establish an out-of-state contact and a household meeting point.

Endure

Household continuity decisions during the disruption:

Follow official instructions. During a tornado warning, shelter immediately. During a flood warning, avoid all flooded roads.
During an extended power outage, conserve phone battery, use stored water, keep freezer doors closed to preserve food (a full freezer holds temperature for about 48 hours).
During extreme heat without air conditioning, move to a cooling center. Check on neighbors, especially older adults living alone.
Never use a generator, charcoal grill, propane grill, or camp stove indoors or in an enclosed garage. Carbon monoxide poisoning kills during every major Arkansas power outage.
If you smell gas after an earthquake, shut off the main gas valve and leave. Do not use open flame.
Document damage with photos before cleanup begins. You will need this for insurance and FEMA claims.

Recover

First recovery steps after the immediate danger passes:

Contact your insurance company before beginning major repairs. Document everything.
Register for FEMA Individual Assistance at DisasterAssistance.gov if a federal disaster is declared.
Be cautious with contractors. Get written estimates. Check the Arkansas Contractors Licensing Board. Be wary of door-to-door offers.
Test well water for bacteria and contaminants after any flood event before resuming use.
Call 2-1-1 for connections to food, shelter, housing assistance, and recovery resources.
Watch for signs of carbon monoxide exposure, mold growth (especially after flooding), and structural damage before reoccupying.

Ten-action checklist

Ten actions that move your household from aware to ready.

Each action is specific, achievable, and addresses multiple Arkansas hazards. Complete them in order. Most are free.

1.Identify your NWS forecast office and enroll in your county alert system.
2.Choose and practice a tornado shelter location for every household member at every regular location, including a plan that works when everyone is asleep.
3.Buy a NOAA Weather Radio with the alarm tone feature, program it for your county, and keep it beside your bed with fresh batteries.
4.Check whether your home and your two most common travel routes cross a mapped flood hazard area or use a low-water crossing.
5.Store at least three days of drinking water per person in a location that flooding will not reach.
6.If you heat with electricity only, identify and test a backup heat source with fuel on hand before winter.
7.Assemble a portable document kit with copies of insurance policies, identification, medical records, and household inventory photos in a waterproof container.
8.Establish an out-of-state contact and a household reunification point that every member knows.
9.If you live in the New Madrid Seismic Zone counties, secure heavy furniture and water heaters, and price earthquake insurance.
10.Review this page's seasonal calendar and set a reminder to verify your preparations at the start of each higher-attention season.

Official resources

Where to find official Arkansas information.

Organized by what you need to do, not by agency name. Every link goes to the official source.

Receive warnings and alerts

NWS Little Rock: forecasts, watches, and warnings for 47 Arkansas counties
ADEM county coordinator directory: find your county emergency management contact and local alert enrollment
NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in Arkansas: frequencies and coverage areas for 25 transmitters

Check roads and conditions

IDriveArkansas: real-time road conditions, closures, and construction from ArDOT
NWS road conditions: weather-related road impacts

Check rivers, flooding, and drought

National Water Prediction Service (Arkansas): river levels, flood forecasts, and gauge readings
Arkansas drought page: current drought conditions and U.S. Drought Monitor status
FEMA flood map service: look up your flood zone by address

Check earthquakes and geological hazards

Arkansas Geological Survey: Earthquakes: seismicity maps, NMSZ information, and educational resources
ADEM earthquake preparedness: state earthquake planning and household guidance
USGS earthquake hazards: recent earthquakes, hazard maps, and NMSZ research

Check fire and air quality

Arkansas Forestry Division: wildfire risk levels, burn bans, and fire reporting
NWS Little Rock fire weather: fire weather forecasts, red flag warnings

Find recovery and assistance

FEMA disaster assistance: register for Individual Assistance after a federal declaration
Arkansas 2-1-1: statewide information and referral: food, shelter, energy assistance, housing, recovery
ADEM: Arkansas Division of Emergency Management, state-level disaster coordination

Review the state hazard mitigation plan

Arkansas hazard mitigation plan: FEMA-approved September 2023; covers every hazard the state evaluates and the mitigation strategies in place

What Arkansas has learned

The January 2009 ice storm and what it taught.

In late January 2009, freezing rain accumulated across northern Arkansas for more than 24 hours. More than 30,000 utility poles were downed or snapped. Over 300,000 residences lost power, and some households went without electricity for weeks. North Arkansas Electric Cooperative reported that 97 percent of its customers lost power.

The household decision that mattered most was backup heat. Homes with a fireplace, wood stove, or ventilated propane heater survived the cold. Homes that depended entirely on electric heat had no option but to evacuate or shelter at a community warming center. Households on private wells lost water when the pump stopped running. Roads were impassable from downed trees and ice, isolating rural areas from supply and emergency services.

What changed afterward: utilities invested in line hardening and vegetation management. FEMA safe-room grants increased. But the fundamental lesson for households remains: if you live in northern Arkansas, your heating, water, and communication plans must work without grid power for at least two weeks.

Limits and methodology

What this page can and cannot tell you.

Statewide information cannot determine property-level risk. A specific address, parcel, or structure may face hazards not reflected in regional summaries, or may be protected by features this page cannot assess.

Historical frequency is not a forecast. The fact that a hazard has not occurred recently does not mean it will not. The fact that it occurs frequently does not mean it will happen this year.

Maps and designations change. Flood zones are remapped. Seismic hazard assessments are updated. Drought conditions shift weekly. Check the current version of any map before making a decision.

Official instructions during an active event supersede general preparedness guidance. This page helps you plan. When a warning is issued, follow the instructions from your NWS office and local emergency management.

Methodology and sources

Hazard classifications are based on the 2023 State of Arkansas Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA-approved September 6, 2023), NWS Little Rock storm statistics, USGS earthquake hazard assessments, ADEM disaster records, and the Arkansas Geological Survey.

Operational regions were defined by shared hazard patterns and household planning needs, distinct from the land-search regions in the main Arkansas state guide.

Tornado statistics: NWS Little Rock reports roughly 37 tornadoes per year based on a 30-year average (1991 to 2020). Recent years have varied significantly: 30 in 2023, 52 in 2024, 35 in 2025. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center records approximately 39 per year since 1950, with higher recent-decade averages partly reflecting improved detection. The state ranked second nationally in tornado fatalities per 100,000 people (13.9) from 1950 to 2006, behind Mississippi.

Ice storm outages: January 2009 ice storm left over 300,000 residences without power in northern Arkansas, downed more than 30,000 utility poles (FEMA DR-1819, declared February 6, 2009). North Arkansas Electric Cooperative reported 97 percent of customers lost power.

New Madrid earthquake probability: USGS estimates 25 to 40 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the NMSZ within any 50-year period, and 7 to 10 percent for magnitude 7.5 to 8.0. ADEM identifies 19 eastern and central counties as having the most significant earthquake risk.

Heat-related illness: The Arkansas Department of Health reported 15 heat-related deaths in 2024 and 10 in 2025.

Wildfire: The 2025 wildfire season began unusually early with 96+ wildfires reported in March. In August 2026, all 75 counties were designated at moderate or higher wildfire risk during flash drought conditions.

NWS county warning areas verified against the official NWS Little Rock CWA listing (weather.gov/lzk/cwatxt.htm): Little Rock serves 47 counties, Memphis 10, Shreveport 9, Tulsa 7, and Jackson, MS 2.

External links verified September 2026.

Common questions

Arkansas local risk, answered.

What are the most consequential hazards for Arkansas households?

Tornadoes, river and flash flooding, ice storms causing extended power outages, severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail, extreme heat, and earthquakes from the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the northeast. Which hazards matter most depends on where in Arkansas you live.

How do I find my NWS forecast office and county emergency management in Arkansas?

Enter your address at weather.gov to find your local NWS office. For county emergency management, contact ADEM or download their county coordinator directory. Enroll in your county's alert notification system for location-specific warnings.

What causes the longest power outages in Arkansas?

Ice storms. The January 2009 ice storm left over 300,000 residences without power in northern Arkansas, downed more than 30,000 utility poles, and left some households without electricity for weeks. North Arkansas Electric Cooperative reported 97 percent of its customers lost power. Arkansas households, especially in the northern half of the state, need a backup heating plan and stored water that does not depend on grid power.

What is the earthquake risk from the New Madrid Seismic Zone?

The USGS estimates a 25 to 40 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the NMSZ within any 50-year period, and a 7 to 10 percent probability of a magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 event. Northeastern Arkansas sits directly over the zone. ADEM identifies 19 eastern and central counties as having the most significant earthquake risk. Earthquake insurance is a separate policy from standard homeowner coverage.

What should every Arkansas household do first?

Identify your NWS forecast office and enroll in your county alert system. Choose and practice a tornado shelter plan. Check whether your home and regular travel routes cross a mapped flood hazard area. Store at least three days of drinking water. If you heat with electricity only, identify a backup heat source before winter.

Start now

Ready to build your household plan?

The first 72 hours guide walks you through the core preparations that matter regardless of which Arkansas hazard triggers them.

Start with your first 72 hours