Missouri Local Risk Guide
Missouri local risk and household disruption guide.
What can go wrong where you live in Missouri, which season deserves your attention, and how your household stays functional when systems around it do not.
Last reviewed September 2026
By Dan Whelan, founder of New World Survival
Researched from government agencies, university extension services, and other published sources. See our sources
Why this page exists
Risk in Missouri is not one thing. It depends on where you are.
Missouri sits at the intersection of several major hazard corridors, but no single county faces all of them equally. A household in Joplin prepares for tornadoes and ice storms. A household in the Bootheel prepares for earthquakes and river flooding. A household in St. Louis prepares for extreme heat, hail, and flooding. The preparations overlap, but the priorities do not.
This page helps you identify which hazards and disruptions are locally relevant, understand how risk changes across the state, see which times of year deserve closer attention, and build a household plan around what is actually likely where you live. It focuses on warning systems, household continuity, cascading failures, and recovery. For land, water rights, growing conditions, and property due diligence, see the main Missouri guide.
Related guide
Choosing land or comparing places in Missouri? The main Missouri land and self-reliance guide covers the statewide score, six land-search regions, water law, cottage food and right-to-farm rules, growing conditions, the true cost of raw land, a parcel checklist, and insurance. This Local Risk guide focuses on warning systems, household disruption, continuity, and recovery.
Start here
Identify your local jurisdiction and forecast office.
Missouri has 114 counties plus the independent City of St. Louis. Emergency management, alert enrollment, and many hazard-specific services are organized at the county level. Knowing your county and the National Weather Service office that covers it is the starting point for every other decision on this page.
Find your county emergency management
Contact SEMA or check their county directory for your local emergency management office and alert enrollment system.
SEMA county planning directoryFind your NWS forecast office
Enter your address at weather.gov to find which NWS office issues warnings for your area. Missouri is covered by three in-state offices plus several out-of-state offices for border counties.
National Weather ServiceNWS offices serving Missouri
Statewide baseline
Ten preparations that address several Missouri hazards at once.
Regardless of where in Missouri you live, these preparations reduce household disruption across multiple hazard types. Each connects to risks documented elsewhere on this page.
Redundant warning reception
Tornadoes, flooding, severe storms, and ice storms all arrive with NWS warnings. A household that relies on a single method (outdoor sirens, phone, or TV) has a single point of failure. Maintain at least two independent methods: NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup plus Wireless Emergency Alerts on at least one phone. County alert enrollment adds a third.
Tornado shelter plan
Missouri experiences tornado warnings statewide, and Ozark terrain can obscure an approaching tornado. Every household member should know where to shelter at home, at work, at school, and while traveling. A basement or FEMA-rated safe room is the safest option. Interior rooms on the lowest floor are the next best. Manufactured homes offer no tornado protection without a community shelter or anchored safe room.
Ice storms, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes can interrupt municipal water supply or disable a private well pump. Store at least one gallon per person per day for a minimum of three days. Rural households on private wells should plan for longer: ice storms have left Missouri communities isolated for over a week.
Backup lighting and device charging
Extended power outages are the common thread across most Missouri hazards. Battery-powered lighting and a way to charge phones (portable battery bank, vehicle charger, or small solar panel) keep the household functional and maintain access to warnings during outages.
Backup heat source (if electric-only heating)
Ice storms regularly produce multi-day outages in Missouri. A household that heats with electricity alone has no warmth when the grid fails in January. Identify and test a backup before winter: a wood stove, a vented propane heater, or a plan to relocate to a heated shelter.
Household communication and reunification plan
Tornadoes and severe storms can occur while family members are at work, school, or in transit. Set a communication plan before the event: who calls whom, which out-of-area contact relays information, and where the household reassembles if home is unreachable.
Medication continuity
Extended outages interrupt refrigerated medications. Displacement after a tornado or flood separates people from pharmacies. Keep a current medication list, maintain a two-week supply when possible, and store copies of prescriptions with other critical documents.
Route awareness and flood-zone verification
Check whether your home and your regular travel routes cross a mapped flood hazard area. Learn where the low-water crossings are on roads you drive. Ozark low-water crossings can go from dry to deadly in under an hour during heavy rain.
Insurance review
Standard homeowner and renter policies exclude flood damage. Earthquake coverage is a separate rider. Hail and wind deductibles vary. Review your policy before the event season. A real address-specific quote for flood and earthquake coverage belongs in your financial planning, not your post-disaster recovery.
Critical documents in a portable location
Insurance policies, identification, prescriptions, and financial records are difficult to reconstruct after displacement. Keep copies in a grab-and-go location and a second set in cloud storage or with a trusted person outside your area.
Hazard profile
What can happen, where it matters, and your first decision.
Each row connects a hazard to the household disruption it causes and the planning decision it requires. The "Full guide" column links to the national hazard page with detailed before, during, and after protocols.
| Hazard | Where it matters | Higher-attention period | Warning character | Likely household disruption | First planning decision | Full guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornadoes | Statewide; highest concentration in southwest and central Missouri | April through June; secondary peak in November and December | Minutes to tens of minutes via NWS tornado warning | Structural damage, power loss, displacement, road closures, injury | Where is your tornado shelter at each location (home, work, school, travel)? | Tornado guide → |
| River and flash flooding | Missouri and Mississippi river corridors statewide; flash floods concentrated in Ozark valleys and low-water crossings | Spring through early fall for river flooding; flash floods year-round after heavy rain | River floods: hours to days. Flash floods: minutes to hours. Low-water crossings can go from dry to deadly in under an hour. | Road closures, property damage, displacement, contaminated water supply, agricultural loss | Is your home in a mapped flood hazard area? Do your regular routes cross low-water crossings? | Flood guide → |
| Severe storms and hail | Statewide; frequent in all regions | April through October | Severe thunderstorm warnings 15 to 60 minutes via NWS | Roof and vehicle damage, power outages, downed trees, road hazards | Does your insurance have a separate hail or wind deductible? Can you shelter vehicles? | Severe storm guide → |
| Ice storms | Most severe along the I-44 corridor and Ozark plateau; central and southern Missouri ice storm belt | December through February | Winter storm watches 12 to 48 hours in advance; winter storm warnings when imminent | Extended power outages (days to weeks), road closures, heating loss, water supply interruption, rural isolation | If the power is out for a week in January, how does your household stay warm, hydrated, and fed? | Ice storm guide → |
| Earthquakes (New Madrid) | Southeast Missouri (Bootheel) sits directly over the seismic zone; shaking would affect St. Louis and much of the state | No seasonal pattern | No advance warning. Earthquake early warning systems are limited in the central U.S. | Structural damage, infrastructure failure, soil liquefaction, bridge and road damage, extended utility outages across multiple states | Do you have earthquake insurance? Are heavy items secured? What is your reunification plan if communication fails? | Earthquake guide → |
| Extreme heat | Statewide; most severe in urban areas, especially St. Louis and Kansas City | June through September | NWS heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, hours to days of notice | Heat-related illness, increased energy demand, brownouts, reduced well yields, livestock and garden stress | Can your household cool itself if grid power fails during a heat wave? | Extreme heat guide → |
| Drought | Statewide; impacts agricultural areas and rural well-dependent households most | Summer and fall typically; can persist | U.S. Drought Monitor updates weekly; slow onset | Reduced well yields, fire risk increase, agricultural loss, water use restrictions | If your well yield drops, what is your supplemental water plan? | Drought Monitor → |
Operational risk regions
What you prepare for depends on where in Missouri you live.
These six operational regions group counties by shared hazard patterns and household planning needs. They are different from the land-search regions in the main state guide, which are organized around soil, growing conditions, and property markets.
Northwest and North Central Missouri
St. Joseph, Maryville, Chillicothe, Kirksville, Hannibal
Tornadoes and severe storms are the primary spring and summer hazards. River flooding affects communities along Missouri River tributaries. Ice storms and extreme cold create multi-day outage risk in winter. Rural isolation is a factor during extended winter events.
Three things to verify locally:
- Your county emergency management contact and alert enrollment
- Which NWS office serves your county (EAX for most of this region)
- Flood zone status for any property near rivers or creeks
Kansas City Metropolitan Area
Jackson, Clay, Platte, Cass, Ray, Lafayette counties and adjacent areas
Severe storms with damaging hail are frequent. Flooding along the Missouri River and tributaries affects low-lying areas. Tornadoes occur, including in developed suburban areas. Extreme heat during summer stresses urban infrastructure. Ice storms cause significant disruption when they reach the metro.
Three things to verify locally:
- Enroll in your county's alert notification system
- Check flood zone for any property near rivers or creeks
- Verify tornado shelter access for apartments and workplaces
Central Missouri
Columbia, Jefferson City, Sedalia, Lake of the Ozarks area
Tornadoes and severe storms are the primary warm-season hazards. The May 2019 Jefferson City tornado (EF-3) struck the state capital and demonstrated that any Missouri community can be hit. Flash flooding is a concern in the Ozark fringe and around the Lake of the Ozarks. Ice storms affect the southern portions of this region. Bagnell Dam and Truman Dam create downstream considerations for some communities.
Three things to verify locally:
- Whether you are downstream of Bagnell Dam or Truman Dam
- Your county emergency management contact and NWS office
- Flash flood exposure for properties in valleys or near streams
Southwest Missouri and the Ozarks
Springfield, Joplin, Branson, West Plains, Ozark streams and valleys
This region has Missouri's highest tornado concentration. Flash flooding at low-water crossings and in narrow Ozark valleys is fast and often fatal. Ice storms along the I-44 corridor produce the state's longest outages; the January 2007 storm left over 200,000 in the Springfield NWS area without power, some for weeks. Rural isolation during winter storms is a serious concern. Ozark terrain can obscure an approaching tornado until it is dangerously close.
Three things to verify locally:
- Every low-water crossing on routes you drive regularly
- Tornado shelter availability on any property (especially manufactured homes)
- Backup heat and water plan for extended ice-storm outages
St. Louis Metropolitan Area
City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, St. Charles County, Jefferson County, Franklin County
Severe storms with damaging hail are a near-annual event. Extreme heat combined with the urban heat island effect makes St. Louis one of the most heat-stressed cities in the country; heat-related deaths from 1980 to 2016 exceeded 1,200 statewide, with St. Louis accounting for the largest share. Flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers affects low-lying industrial and residential areas. Tornadoes have struck the metro area. A significant New Madrid earthquake would produce felt shaking and potential damage in St. Louis.
Three things to verify locally:
- Flood zone and insurance for any property near rivers
- Identify cooling centers and know signs of heat illness
- Verify hail and wind deductibles on homeowner insurance
Southeast Missouri and the Bootheel
Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, New Madrid, Poplar Bluff, Caruthersville, Kennett
This is the only region in the state where earthquakes are a primary planning concern. The New Madrid Seismic Zone runs directly beneath the Bootheel. The 1811 and 1812 earthquakes were among the most powerful in North American history. The alluvial soils in the Mississippi floodplain are susceptible to liquefaction during strong shaking. Mississippi River flooding is a persistent concern. Tornadoes and extreme heat are also significant.
Three things to verify locally:
- Whether earthquake insurance is appropriate for your property
- Whether your structure sits on alluvial or sandy soil (liquefaction risk)
- Flood zone status and evacuation routes away from the Mississippi corridor
Seasonal readiness
A Missouri household readiness calendar.
Hazards in Missouri follow rough seasonal patterns, but none are impossible outside their typical window. This calendar identifies higher-attention periods and the household tasks that go with them.
| Period | Higher-attention hazards | Household task |
|---|---|---|
| January – February | Ice storms, winter storms, extreme cold | Verify backup heat, stored water, and generator or battery fuel. Review winter storm kit. Check pipes and outdoor water systems for freeze protection. |
| March | Severe weather season begins; early tornadoes possible | Test NOAA Weather Radio. Review tornado shelter plan with every household member. Check insurance coverage renewal dates. Clean gutters and storm drains. |
| April – June | Peak tornado and severe storm season; river flooding; flash flooding | Maintain active weather awareness. Restock storm supplies (batteries, water, first aid). Review flood insurance. Avoid crossing flowing water at low-water crossings. |
| July – August | Extreme heat; drought; summer severe storms; flash flooding | Check cooling capability without grid power. Monitor well yields during dry periods. Stay aware of flash flood potential from summer thunderstorms. Check on heat-vulnerable neighbors. |
| September – October | Late-season severe storms; hurricane remnants bringing flooding; transition to winter preparation | Begin winter preparation. Service heating equipment. Review and restock supplies used during summer. Inspect roof and gutters before winter. |
| November – December | Secondary tornado peak possible; ice storm preparation; winter storms | Winterize pipes and outdoor water systems. Top off heating fuel. Verify vehicle winter kit. Check backup lighting and charging supplies. |
Cascading disruptions
How one failure leads to the next.
Missouri hazards rarely cause a single isolated problem. Understanding which systems fail together helps a household prepare for the actual disruption, not just the triggering event.
Ice storm chain (the longest Missouri outages)
Heavy ice accumulation → downed power lines and utility poles → extended power outage (days to weeks) → electric heating fails → private well pumps stop (no water) → medication refrigeration fails → roads ice over and tree debris blocks routes → rural communities isolated → fuel and supply delivery interrupted.
Preparation that reduces the consequence: Backup heat source independent of grid power. Stored water. Medication plan. Generator or battery system with fuel for several days. Full pantry before the storm arrives.
Severe thunderstorm chain
Severe thunderstorm with straight-line winds → widespread power outage → traffic signals fail → fuel distribution disrupted at stations without backup power → cellular tower batteries deplete after 4 to 8 hours → communication loss in affected area → warning reception for subsequent storms compromised.
Preparation that reduces the consequence: NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup (receives warnings without cellular service). Vehicle fuel kept above half. Portable battery bank for phone charging.
River flooding chain
Extended heavy rain → Missouri or Mississippi River exceeds flood stage → road and bridge closures isolate communities → municipal water intake contaminated or overwhelmed → boil-water advisory issued → agricultural loss in floodplain → displaced households overwhelm shelter capacity → recovery takes months.
Preparation that reduces the consequence: Flood insurance in place before the event. Stored water and a water treatment method. Evacuation route that avoids flood-prone bridges. Critical documents in portable waterproof storage.
New Madrid earthquake chain
Major earthquake on the NMSZ → bridge and road damage across multiple states → utility infrastructure fails (electric, water, gas, sewer) → soil liquefaction in alluvial areas damages foundations → no advance warning means injuries occur instantly → supply chain collapse across the region → recovery measured in months to years.
Preparation that reduces the consequence: Earthquake insurance. Heavy items secured to walls. Family reunification plan that does not depend on phones or bridges. Two weeks of water, food, and medication. Cash on hand.
Tornado chain
Tornado strikes populated area → structural damage and displacement → power outage across the damage path → schools and businesses closed → family members separated → debris blocks access for emergency vehicles → insurance claims backlog → temporary housing shortage → community recovery takes years.
Preparation that reduces the consequence: Tornado shelter plan practiced and immediate. Insurance current with adequate coverage. Critical documents portable. Communication plan for family reunification without cell service.
Household situations
What changes for your household.
Not every household faces Missouri hazards the same way. These overlays identify the specific adjustments that matter most for common living situations. Each answers three questions: what changes, what to verify locally, and what is the first practical improvement.
Manufactured-home residents
What changes: Manufactured homes provide no meaningful protection from tornadoes. Wind damage from severe storms is also more likely. Missouri tornado warnings give minutes of lead time, which is only useful if a shelter is reachable in that time.
Verify locally: Whether a community storm shelter exists within your mobile home park or within a short drive. Whether your county has a shelter registry.
First improvement: Identify the nearest sturdy building or community shelter and time the walk or drive.
Rural private-well households
What changes: When grid power fails, the well pump stops. No pump means no water for drinking, sanitation, or livestock. Extended ice-storm outages in rural Missouri have lasted over a week.
Verify locally: Whether your well can be powered by a generator. What your well yield is during drought. Whether a hand pump or gravity-fed system is feasible.
First improvement: Store enough water to cover household and animal needs for at least five days without the well pump.
Electric-only heat or cooking
What changes: An ice storm that takes out the grid takes out your heat and cooking at the same time. A household with a gas furnace or wood stove has heat without the grid. An all-electric household does not.
Verify locally: Whether a vented propane heater, kerosene heater, or wood stove is a feasible backup. What your landlord permits if you rent.
First improvement: Acquire and test a backup heat source before the first winter storm watch.
Renters and apartment residents
What changes: Renters may have limited control over shelter improvements, window protection, tree maintenance, and backup heating. Tornado shelter access in apartment complexes varies widely.
Verify locally: Whether your building has a designated tornado shelter area. What your renter's insurance covers and excludes (most exclude flood). What portable preparations your lease permits.
First improvement: Get renter's insurance and confirm tornado shelter access in your building.
Older adults and people living alone
What changes: Heat illness risk is higher. Extended outages are harder to manage alone. Mobility limitations can slow shelter-seeking during a tornado warning. Medication access becomes critical during displacement.
Verify locally: Cooling center locations in your community. Whether a neighbor or nearby contact can check in during extended events.
First improvement: Establish a check-in arrangement with at least one nearby person who will verify your safety during severe weather and extended outages.
Medically dependent households
What changes: Refrigerated medications (insulin and others) lose effectiveness without cooling. Powered medical equipment (CPAP, oxygen concentrators, home dialysis) fails without electricity. Pharmacies may be closed or inaccessible after a tornado or during flooding.
Verify locally: Whether your utility has a medical-priority restoration list. Whether your pharmacy has a disaster-refill protocol. Battery backup options for essential equipment.
First improvement: Keep a current medication list, maintain a two-week supply, and identify a battery or generator solution for essential powered devices.
Warning systems
How warnings reach your household.
Missouri's warning chain runs from federal detection through state and county communication to your household. Understanding the chain helps you build redundancy into your own reception.
Federal detection and forecast
NOAA radar, NWS forecast offices, the Storm Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center, and USGS earthquake monitoring detect hazardous conditions and issue watches and warnings.
NWS warnings and watches
Your local NWS office issues warnings (imminent danger) and watches (conditions favorable for a hazard). Missouri is covered by three in-state offices and several out-of-state offices for border counties. A watch means prepare. A warning means act now. An outlook means conditions may develop.
Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)
Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, and other imminent-threat alerts are pushed to cell phones in the affected area. WEA does not require enrollment but depends on cellular service. During an extended power outage, cell towers may lose battery backup after 4 to 8 hours.
NOAA Weather Radio
Dedicated broadcast receivers that sound an alarm when the NWS issues a warning for your area. Operates on radio frequency, not cellular or internet, so it works when phones and internet are down. Battery backup is essential. Missouri has extensive NOAA Weather Radio coverage.
Outdoor warning sirens
Many Missouri communities operate outdoor warning sirens for tornado warnings. These are designed to alert people who are outdoors. They are not designed to be heard indoors, through closed windows, or with a television or air conditioner running. Do not rely on sirens as your only warning method.
County alert enrollment
Many Missouri counties operate their own alert notification systems that can send calls, texts, or emails for local emergencies beyond weather. These require enrollment and are not automatic. Contact your county emergency management office or check their website to enroll.
Road and travel information
The Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) operates the Traveler Information Map showing real-time road conditions, closures, and incidents. Available at modot.org and as a smartphone app. Essential during winter storms and flooding.
Prepare, endure, recover
The three phases of household readiness.
Prepare
Actions you can complete before the higher-attention season or within the next month.
- Enroll in your county alert system and test your NOAA Weather Radio.
- Designate and practice a tornado shelter location for every place your household regularly occupies.
- Store water. One gallon per person per day for at least three days, more for rural households on private wells.
- Review insurance: flood and earthquake are separate policies. Confirm hail and wind deductibles.
- Set a household communication and reunification plan. Include an out-of-area contact.
- If you heat with electricity only, test your backup heat source before winter.
- Keep critical documents, medication list, and prescription copies in a portable waterproof container.
Endure
Household continuity decisions during the disruption. Follow official instructions from your NWS office and county emergency management. These state-specific notes supplement, not replace, the detailed protocols in each hazard guide.
- Tornado warning: Go to your shelter immediately. Do not look outside, check radar, or wait to see if it gets worse. Use the full lead time.
- Flash flooding: Never cross a flooded low-water crossing, even if you have crossed it safely a hundred times before. Turn around.
- Extended power outage: Conserve phone battery for warnings. Check on neighbors, especially those who live alone. Monitor food temperatures and discard perishables after four hours above 40 degrees F.
- Earthquake: Drop, cover, and hold on. Move away from windows and heavy objects. Do not run outside. After shaking stops, check for gas leaks and structural damage before re-entering the building.
- Extreme heat: Stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check on vulnerable household members and neighbors. If cooling fails, know where cooling centers are located.
Recover
First recovery steps after the event.
- Document damage with photographs before moving or cleaning anything. Your insurance claim depends on this documentation.
- Contact your insurance company as soon as safely possible. Ask about advance payments for immediate needs.
- If a federal disaster is declared, register with FEMA for Individual Assistance at DisasterAssistance.gov or by calling 1-800-621-3362.
- Call Missouri 2-1-1 for referrals to food banks, housing, utility assistance, and other recovery resources.
- Be cautious with contractors. Get multiple estimates, check references and licenses, and do not pay the full amount upfront. Post-disaster contractor fraud is common.
- Follow official reentry instructions. Do not return to a damaged or flooded structure until authorities confirm it is safe.
Ten-action checklist
Ten high-value actions for Missouri households.
Each action is specific, achievable, addresses multiple Missouri hazards, and is free or low-cost when a reasonable option exists. Work through them in order.
- Identify your NWS forecast office and enroll in your county emergency alert system. This gives you two independent warning channels beyond Wireless Emergency Alerts.
- Choose and practice your tornado shelter plan for every household member at every regular location. Home, work, school, and a plan for when you are in a vehicle. Especially important if anyone lives in a manufactured home.
- Check whether your home and two ordinary travel routes cross a mapped flood hazard area. Use FEMA's flood map service or your county floodplain manager. This also informs your insurance decision.
- Store at least three days of drinking water. One gallon per person per day. Rural well-dependent households should store more.
- Establish a backup lighting and device-charging method that works without grid power. Battery-powered lanterns and a portable battery bank are a minimum.
- If you heat with electricity only, identify and test a backup heat source before winter. The January 2007 and 2009 ice storms left hundreds of thousands without power, some for weeks.
- Review homeowner or renter insurance: verify that flood and earthquake riders are present or consciously declined. Standard policies exclude both. Hail and wind deductibles vary.
- Set a household communication and reunification plan for when family members are separated. Include an out-of-area contact who can relay information if local calls fail.
- Keep a current medication list, two weeks of essential medications, and copies of critical documents in a portable location. Displacement after a tornado or flood may last days or weeks.
- Identify the low-water crossings on routes you drive regularly and commit to never crossing when water is flowing. This single decision prevents one of the most common flood-related deaths in Missouri.
Official resources
Missouri state and local resources by task.
Organized by what you need to accomplish, not by agency name.
Receive warnings and alerts
- National Weather Service: Find your local forecast office, view active warnings, and check forecasts.
- Missouri SEMA: State emergency management. Statewide coordination, disaster declarations, and the state hazard mitigation plan.
Check roads and travel conditions
- MoDOT Traveler Information: Real-time road conditions, closures, incidents, cameras, and weather. Also available as a smartphone app.
Check rivers and flood conditions
- Missouri Basin River Forecast Center: River stage forecasts for Missouri and tributary rivers.
- FEMA Flood Map Service Center: Look up flood zone designations for any address.
Check earthquake conditions
- USGS Earthquake Hazards Program: Recent earthquakes, the national seismic hazard map, and NMSZ information.
- SEMA Earthquake Program: Missouri-specific earthquake preparedness, insurance guidance, and NMSZ resources.
- Missouri DNR Earthquake Information: Facts about the NMSZ, geological survey maps, and seismic monitoring.
Check drought and water conditions
- U.S. Drought Monitor: Missouri: Weekly drought severity map for the state.
Find county emergency management
- SEMA All-Hazard Planning: Contact SEMA for your county emergency management office.
Find shelter, food, housing, or recovery assistance
- Missouri 2-1-1: Statewide referral service for disaster recovery, energy assistance, food banks, housing, and human services.
- FEMA DisasterAssistance.gov: Apply for Individual Assistance after a federal disaster declaration.
Review the state hazard mitigation plan
- 2023 Enhanced Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan: The state's full analysis of hazards, risks, and mitigation strategies. Current through July 2028.
What Missouri has learned
The Joplin lesson: warning time is only useful if you use it.
On May 22, 2011, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, Missouri. The NWS Central Region Service Assessment recorded 158 direct deaths and over 1,000 injuries. The tornado warning was issued 24 minutes before the tornado struck, which is above-average lead time.
Many people heard the warning and took shelter. Others heard it and did not act, because they had heard tornado warnings before that produced no tornado. The NWS post-event assessment identified warning complacency as a contributing factor to the high death toll.
Joplin changed national policy. It led to the creation of the "Tornado Emergency" designation, a higher-tier warning used when a large tornado is confirmed and moving toward a populated area. It also reinforced a lesson that applies to every Missouri household: the value of a warning depends entirely on whether you act on it immediately, without evaluating it first.
Twenty-four minutes is enough time to save your life, but only if you use all of it.
Limits and methodology
What this page can and cannot tell you.
Statewide information cannot determine property-level risk. Whether your specific address floods, whether your soil will liquefy in an earthquake, whether your well will hold up in a drought, and whether a tornado will hit your neighborhood are all property-specific questions that require local investigation.
Historical frequency is not a forecast. Past patterns inform preparation, but they do not predict when the next event will occur or how severe it will be.
Maps and designations change. Flood maps, seismic hazard maps, drought designations, and fire risk ratings are updated periodically. Check the current version for any decision that depends on them.
Official instructions during an event supersede general guidance. This page provides preparation and awareness information. During an active tornado warning, flood event, earthquake, or other emergency, follow the instructions of your local NWS office, county emergency management, and law enforcement.
Methodology and sources
Hazard classifications are based on the 2023 Enhanced Missouri State Hazard Mitigation Plan (current through July 2028), NOAA Storm Prediction Center records, USGS earthquake hazard assessments, SEMA disaster history, and the Missouri State Climatologist.
Operational regions were defined by shared hazard patterns and household planning needs, distinct from the land-search regions in the main Missouri state guide.
Tornado statistics: The Missouri State Climatologist reports just over 30 tornadoes per year on average. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center records approximately 35 per year since 1950, with higher recent-decade averages partly reflecting improved detection after Doppler radar deployment in the 1990s.
Joplin death toll: 158 direct deaths per the NWS Central Region Service Assessment. NIST reports 161 fatalities including indirect and delayed deaths.
Ice storm outages: January 2007 storm left over 323,000 utility customers without power (SEMA Disaster 1676). January 2009 storm downed approximately 18,000 utility poles in southeast Missouri with 135,000 customers without power at peak (SEMA Disaster 1822).
New Madrid earthquake probability: USGS estimates 25 to 40 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the NMSZ within any 50-year period, and 7 to 10 percent for magnitude 7.5 to 8.0.
Heat-related deaths: Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services reported 4,377 hyperthermia cases and 1,272 deaths between 1980 and 2016, with the City of St. Louis accounting for the largest share.
External links verified September 2026.
Common questions
Missouri local risk, answered.
What are the most consequential hazards for Missouri households?
Tornadoes, river and flash flooding, severe storms with large hail, ice storms causing extended power outages, extreme heat (especially in urban areas), and earthquakes from the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the southeast. Which hazards matter most depends on where in Missouri you live.
How do I find my NWS forecast office and county emergency management?
Enter your address at weather.gov to find your local NWS office. For county emergency management, contact SEMA or check their website for a county directory. Enroll in your county's alert notification system for location-specific warnings.
What causes the longest power outages in Missouri?
Ice storms. The January 2007 ice storm left more than 323,000 utility customers without power, some for over two weeks, after heavy ice accumulation brought down thousands of utility poles. The January 2009 ice storm downed about 18,000 utility poles in southeast Missouri. Missouri households, especially in the southern half of the state, need a backup heating plan and stored water that does not depend on grid power.
What is the earthquake risk from the New Madrid Seismic Zone?
The USGS estimates a 25 to 40 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake in the NMSZ within any 50-year period, and a 7 to 10 percent probability of a magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 event. Southeast Missouri sits directly over the zone. Most Missouri buildings were not designed for seismic loads. Earthquake insurance is a separate rider from standard homeowner policies.
What should every Missouri household do first?
Identify your NWS forecast office and enroll in your county alert system. Choose and practice a tornado shelter plan. Check whether your home and regular travel routes cross a mapped flood hazard area. Store at least three days of drinking water. If you heat with electricity only, identify a backup heat source before winter.
Start now
Ready to build your household plan?
The first 72 hours guide walks you through the core preparations that matter regardless of which Missouri hazard triggers them.
Start with your first 72 hours